One Finger Victory Salute
From George to you.

openDemocracy
I'm liking what I read. Actual critical analyses using logic!

Blogger Knowledge: Blogging Your Novel (Part Two)
For those of us who want to write a novel in a month.

Note, to "win", you have to generate 50,000 words. It doesn't actually have to be any good... the general philosophy is that to be a writer, all you have to do is write...

(LILEKS) James : Music Good stuff! I think I have to buy a Mac and Garageband... many projects spring to mind:
James Bond
Arnold's movies
A melange of NYC sitcoms
McGuyvering
...

Redefining Rights in America The report of the bi-partisan US Commission on Civil Rights. Report being suppressed until post-election, reportedly by Republican members of Congress. Wonder why? Probably because of content...

Executive Summary
Civil rights problems remain entrenched in American society, the stubborn result of unequal treatment over time. Discrimination in housing, employment, and the voting booth, unequal educational opportunity, and other problems still stand between some Americans and true equality. Presidential leadership is necessary to break down obstacles and realize the promise of civil rights.

The U.S. Commission on Civil Rights (Commission) examined the George W. Bush administration’s commitment to that end. What follows are the results of the Commission’s examination, expressed in terms of:
(1) whether civil rights enforcement is a presidential priority;
(2) federal efforts to eradicate entrenched discrimination;
(3) expanding and protecting rights for disadvantaged groups; and
(4) promoting access to federal programs and services for traditionally underserved populations.

This report finds that President Bush has neither exhibited leadership on pressing civil rights issues, nor taken actions that matched his words. The report reaches this conclusion after analyzing and summarizing numerous documents, including historical literature, reports, scholarly articles, presidential and administration statements, executive orders, policy briefs, documents of Cabinet-level agencies, federal budgets and other data.

Priority of Civil Rights
Through public statements and actions, by establishing a diverse executive branch that affirms civil rights, and by funding enforcement, an administration can express its commitment to equal opportunity. This report finds that President Bush has not defined a clear agenda nor made civil rights a priority.
Statements and Action: Public statements are a means by which Presidents draw the country’s attention to important matters. However, President Bush seldom speaks about civil rights, and when he does, it is to carry out official duties, not to promote initiatives or plans for improving opportunity. Even when he publicly discusses existing barriers to equality and efforts to overcome them, the administration’s words and deeds often conflict.
Federal Diversity and Support for Civil Rights: Although not to the extent of the previous administration, President Bush has assembled a commendably diverse Cabinet and moderately diverse judiciary. However, many of his nominees and appointees do not support civil rights protections. The effect may be eventual weakening of civil rights laws.
Civil Rights Funding: Requests for funding is one means by which Presidents make their priorities known. In his first three years in office, the net increase in President Bush’s requests for civil rights enforcement agencies was less than those of the previous two administrations. After accounting for inflation, the President’s requests for the six major civil rights programs (Departments of Education, Labor, Justice, Health and Human Services, and Housing and Urban Development, and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission) amount to a loss of spending power for 2004 and 2005.

...

Continuing, we find:
President Bush has implemented policies that have retreated from long-established civil rights promises in each of these areas.
...
Voting Rights: Despite promising to unite the nation and improve its election system, the President failed to act swiftly toward election reform.
...
Affirmative Action: ... President Bush has tried to please both supporters and opponents, a tactic that has resulted in a misleading and vague position. He has not exhibited strong leadership on this issue where leadership is vital.

2004 Presidential Election Forecast
From Henry Chappell at Univ. of South Carolina. Currently (as of 10/19) predicting Kerry with 282 EVs.
Kerry swing/surprise states: AR, HI, IA, MI, MN, MO, NM, OR, PA, WV, WI.
Bush swing/surprise states: AZ, CO, FL, NH, OH

I built a monte carlo electoral vote simulator using Chappell's state-by-state estimated percentages. The only underlying heroic assumption is that all states are independent (clearly false). Running 5000 simulated votes, Kerry is elected 53.75% of the time, Bush 46.25% (giving to Bush all of the 269-269 ties, which occur 1.1% of the time).

Median result is Kerry 273 EVs. Max landslides are Kerry 396 EVs, Bush 399 EVs.

Adding correlation pushes Kerry's median EVs up [to 282 at 100% correlation], but reduces his win rate [to 52.8% at 100%]. Not surprisingly, the outliers get more extreme.

Republican Switchers A very large number of Republicans, and conservatives, are endorsing Kerry.
Scott McConnell (Ed. of American Conservative): "Bush has come to embody a politics that is antithetical to almost any kind of thoughtful conservatism."
Doug Bandow (Reagan advisor, fellow at Cato): "Bush is a dangerous, profligate, moralizing radical ... his reelection would be catastrophic both for the right and for America."

Opinions You Should Have Humor from a FOAF.

New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan

Schaffer Library of Drug Policy Amazing collection of research literature on the issue of drugs & policy. Seems like our "war on drugs" is progressing poorly. Not sure what the victory conditions would be... Many of the recommendations (e.g. from Consumer's Union) are very sensible but politically infeasible.

Liberalism Resurgent Hey, it couldn't hurt!

Failures of Conservatism And those bad bad conservatives!

Accomplishments of Liberalism From the (now moribund) Turn Left site.

Harper's Magazine: The case for liberalism: a defense of the future against the past - Essay George McGovern makes a strong case.

The Idea Oven Archive Eric also has a blog on possibly interesting ideas to make the world a better place.

Eric Zorn Speeches: Why I'm Proud to be a Liberal It's mindboggling to me that such a large number of "center-right" believe that liberalism is truly evil. Here is a spirited defense of liberalism which acknowledges failings and errors while arguing for the fundamental goal of protecting "individuals, often and particularly powerless and poor individuals, from forces in society that, unchecked, will tend to harm them."

Further quote:
"If liberals are guilty of romanticizing the beneficial possibilities of government--which we sometimes are--that foolishness is more than matched by the romantic, even superstitious faith that conservatives place in the quote-unquote free market. "

RealClearPolitics references many political articles from all sides.

Economists Poll on Bush & Kerry plans
The academic eggheads seem to strongly favor the liberal senator's plan over the compassionate conservative plan. Pointing out that Bush's plan is unsustainable with major tax cuts & massive spending. They come down 4::1 that Kerry will promote better fiscal discipline. 2.5::1 in favor of Kerry's health care proposals. The only significant advantage they give to Bush is on trade - liking his moves towards free trade and pointing out that Kerry's outsourcing issue is just not really a big issue.

The 'Catastrophic Success': The Strategy to Secure Iraq Did Not Foresee a 2nd War Support for why I can't vote for Bush. I cast my vote for Kerry-Edwards today in New Mexico's early voting. Exit polling, while not officially published, shows heavy tilt to Kerry. Not particularly a surprise, since Santa Fe leans Democratic.

Despair, Inc. Makes me laugh. Need some de-motivation?

Questions and Observations Blog Seems to be reasonably sensible at avoiding loony left or wing nut rhetoric... though has a strong right/libertarian flavor.

The Washington Monthly Does Bush lie more than Kerry? Does his campaign have a stronger intent to deceive? Is Halperin right? Looks like it.

U.S. Constitution - Table of Contents - The U.S. Constitution Online - USConstitution.net In case you need to remember what the government is and is not allowed to do.

Swing State Project Seems to be a bit lefty. Tracking the projected electoral votes. But see the more conservative Election Projection for alternative ways of counting. Maybe Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 is more in the middle...

My eBay 2.0 Icon Glossary I can never remember the meanings of all the damn icons...

Pandorabots - A Multilingual Chatbot Hosting Service Here's a way to construct your own virtual personality chatterbot. It's based on a specific pattern matching style. Seems to do better in practice than work using parsers & grammars.

this_or_that.mov (video/quicktime Object) And a very amusing remix (propaganda, of course, but it's well done...) from the debate.

How do you run a convention on a record of failure? Some clips of the "highlights" of the GOP convention. A pretty clear message. Oh, about the current administration's accomplishments? Nil. Plans? Nil. Fear, terrorism, September 11? Weapons of mass distraction.

The New Marcom Game Doc Searls' heuristics for marketing communications, which is now a two-way street via the power of the Internet.